Cox Raises Used Retail Forecast to 20.5M: What It Means for Competing Seller Leads

The short answer

Cox Automotive raised its 2026 used-vehicle retail sales forecast in its September 24 update and now expects 20.5 million used retail sales this year. For dealers, steady retail demand keeps pressure on used-vehicle acquisition. Consumer seller enquiries are one way to source cars, but on TX Lead Forge those automotive seller leads are competing offers, not exclusive, so the stores that respond fastest and appraise honestly tend to win the car.

What Cox Automotive said

In its Q3 2026 forecast release, published September 24, 2026, Cox Automotive said it:

• Raised its full-year 2026 new-vehicle sales forecast to 16.1 million units from 15.8 million.
• Expects 20.5 million used retail sales and 38.5 million total used-vehicle sales in 2026.
• Increased its forecast for used retail and total used sales, while noting that total used-vehicle sales are still expected to finish slightly below 2025.

Cox's chief economist Jeremy Robb said the biggest change was more confidence in demand than three months earlier, while noting that affordability challenges remain. The full narrated update is on Cox's Q3 2026 Sales Forecast Update page.

These are national forecasts, not Texas-specific numbers, and they describe the market overall, not lead performance.

What it means for used-vehicle acquisition

When retail demand holds up, the pinch point for many stores is supply: getting the right used units onto the lot at a price that leaves room to recondition and retail them. Trade-ins, auctions, and direct purchases from consumers all compete for the same cars.

Consumer seller enquiries are attractive because the seller has already raised their hand. But the seller is usually comparing options, and a good lead can go cold quickly if nobody calls.

How automotive seller leads work on TX Lead Forge

We want dealers to know exactly what they are buying:

• Automotive seller enquiries are competing offers. A seller may hear from more than one participating dealer. These leads are never sold as exclusive to one dealer.
• Roofing and real-estate leads are exclusive. That is a different product.
• Invalid-lead issues are handled case by case. We do not publish blanket refund or credit promises.

Details are on our automotive leads page.

Winning competing seller leads

Because more than one store may reach the seller, process matters more than volume:

1. Respond fast. First contact that same business day, with a real person, keeps you in the conversation.
2. Set expectations on the first call. Explain that any number is confirmed after a physical appraisal, and ask about payoff, title status, keys, and condition up front.
3. Book the appraisal, not just the conversation. A scheduled inspection time is the milestone that matters.
4. Make an honest offer and explain it. Sellers comparing stores remember which buyer showed their math on reconditioning and market conditions.
5. Handle payoff cleanly. Many sellers still owe. A clear payoff process removes a common reason deals stall.
6. Track outcomes by source. Measure contact rate, appraisal-set rate, and purchase rate so you know whether seller leads are paying for themselves.

The bottom line for dealers

Cox's raised used retail forecast points to durable used-vehicle demand in 2026, with total used volume still expected slightly below last year. For stores that need inventory, competing consumer seller leads can be a useful acquisition channel if the desk treats speed and transparency as the product.

To talk about automotive seller leads, or exclusive roofing and real-estate leads, contact TX Lead Forge.